In my experience smart people are also far more likely to create elaborate self-reinforcing systems of belief that are detached from reality.
Any moron can understand the idea of a round Earth and stuff orbiting around it. It takes a genius to comprehend the sublime intricacies of ether vortex theory which explains how a flat Earth can still permit satellites to stay airborne over the plane.
I've met an extremely intelligent person who was convinced we never landed on the Moon and that Stanley Kubrick faked the whole thing and left clues to this in his production of The Shining. I've also met one who thinks the Nazis invented anti-gravity and are hiding the technology to this day in underground bases in Antarctica and South America.
Not regularly, no. But sometimes a feature change requires a dependent architectural change — a refactoring of the internal library code that the feature will be implemented into. Or sometimes the language of choice doesn't have a pre-commit-hookable CLI auto-formatter, only an IDE auto-formatter, and the dev editing a file triggers formatting changes to be applied that should have been done in a previous change. And sometimes, a dev thinks it's a good idea to change the representation and decoding logic for a data file or embedded data-structure literal at the same time that they're adding an entry to it (usually because they can't represent the added item's additional semantics without said change.)
> But usually you can break a feature into different parts (e.g. database, backend, frontend) and merge them in separately.
So you've already written all that code, because you couldn't get anything to "work" for end-to-end testing until you wrote all parts of it. The patchset as a whole is inherently large.
Now what? How do you "break [the] feature into different parts" when it's already all written and committed on a WIP branch?
That's right: cherry-picking and rebasing.
The GP is arguing against bothering with this process. Presumably because git-rebase(1) is unintuitive to them, and they don't realize that you should start this workflow with a copy of your branch, or a new branch with cherry-picked commits from your WIP branch, to guarantee non-destructive rebasing. Like making a copy of a layer in Photoshop. (Yes, you can always restore your branch from the reflog, so it's technically always non-destructive; but `git checkout -b foo` is something you learn in Chapter 1 of the Git book.)
Stash -> pull -> unstash is just manual rebase, though. You're already doing the thing you're claiming not to do, you're just doing it the hard way.
Which is fine, if that works for you! Just know that you're using different terms for the same thing (do some work on top of A, then move it to be on top of B instead).
Grief is an enormously complicated emotional state that cannot be pithily summed up like that sentence. It's just a quote from a game.
In my experience, it doesn't pass, as in disappear. Instead, the fact of the loss slowly becomes a new fact of your reality. The newness of it will pass. The rawness of the pain will fade - most of the time. There will always be things that bring the person right back sitting next to you. But you begin to re-make your life.
If you continue to struggle and haven't already done so, I can recommend talking with a counselor (I hate the word therapist). Sometimes we just need to unload, but don't want to unload on/burden the other people in our life. Grief can be isolating in this way.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited. Russia intends to use Chernobyl as a deterrent to NATO, according to the report (how, I do not know). It is also not straightforward to put a NATO ally right on Russia's vulnerable flank (it's endless plains and flat ground from Ukraine to Moscow, which has always been a source of strategic vulnerability for Moscow), so admitting Ukraine to NATO was never a concrete possibility. In fact, the US has had to tread very carefully simply to place missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear warheads in Poland, which is a neighbor of Ukraine.
Russia had a buffer state that was content to do its bidding in Yanukovich et. al. but after the Ukrainians overthrew their corrupt government and made moves to establish a genuine western-style democracy with rule of law, Russia were forced to shore up their vulnerable flank. This is part of that process. But they now face bad consequences, including neutral Finland and Sweden deciding to join NATO, perhaps Georgia also, and Germany (and Europe in general) starting to look for alternate energy sources in earnest (Russia supplies a huge percentage of Europe's energy needs, and is also a huge supplier of many rare earths and raw materials that are critical to the Semiconductor Industry).
EDIT: Belarus is also a client state of Russia's, and there has been unrest there, so perhaps Russia is sensing that they might slip as well. Putin is desperate to do whatever it takes to stay in power in Russia, and these things play into that as well.
I don't know your specifics, but I have worked on some large scale architecture changes, and 200 engineers + 2 year feature freeze is generally not a reasonable ask. In practice you need to find an incremental path with validation and course correction along the way to limit the amount of concurrent change in flight at any moment. If you don't do this run a very high risk of the entire initiative collapsing under its own weight.
Assuming your estimation is more or less correct and it really is a 400 eng-year project, then you also need political capital as well as technical leadership to make it happen. There are lots of companies where a smart engineer can see a potential path out of a local maximum, but the org structure and lack of technical leadership in the highest ranks means that the problem is effectively intractable.
Largely because the flagging consumed the oxygen in the room. But there are still comments talking about potential outcomes.
My main concern is around whether the foundation ends up splitting from its current areas of focus (climate change and disease research). There's been a wealth of innovation around both as a consequence of GF's investment and I worry that less focus might mean less funding at a critical time for both.
At this point people advocating the position you’re advocating for are in a state of denial (this is my opinion, not a matter of fact, obviously). Your assumption is that we can effectively prevent the majority of the nation from exposure via lockdown.
Not only does evidence seem to point against that, but when you do the math on mortality due to suicide and overdose it’s not clear that containment would even save more lives in the long run.
Here’s how you can tell people’s philosophical positions: if they talk about fear of a “second wave” they are Containers, since that implies the initial “wave” will not infect the majority; ie the virus is successfully contained (EDIT: See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22961927 for the caveat here).
Ironically, leaders like Fauci are verbally saying that containment is not the strategy, yet every word that he says and the IMHE model everyone is relying on are all the result of a Containment ideology.
The alternative is what I would call Pareto mitigation. The vulnerable portion of the population self isolates, while the rest of us are _allowed_ to resume working and living more or less normally (still no large gatherings presumably).
I'd like to take this moment to put out a brief PSA that the serological data coming out, while not 100% reliable, is all telling more or less the same story. Let's look at these IFRs (the second link is CFRs but for Italian healthcare workers who presumably are all getting tested so I'm treating it as a de-facto IFR):
(I'm linking to the reddit comments instead of the actual study because they're really nice tables and the links are still there for anyone who wants to double check)
As others have said, for those around age 45 or less, Covid is equally or less dangerous than Influenza. And particular for those under 30 the flu is an order of magnitude more deadly at least.
In the general population overall, Covid is undeniably more deadly than the flu, but only about 3-5x (and I think 3x personally right now).
Recall that the flu is characterized by deaths in the very young and very old, while being less harmful to those "in between", purportedly due to the "cytokine storm" which is a scorched earth reaction of the immune system. Covid is very different, it is extraordinarily deadly to the very old, extraordinarily non-deadly to the very young, and about the same as the flu to those in between.
A disease with such a "spiky" (highly variable) mortality rate based on your risk factors is precisely the kind of disease that is most effectively treated with risk-informed self quarantine rather than a national lockdown.
Unemployment is correlated with a 2-3x higher chance of suicide, of which perhaps half can be explained away by mental health confounds [1]. There's unique factors in play here - rampant social isolation and widespead fearmongering, propagated even by health experts and "trusted" news sources at times - that lead me to believe that the spike in suicide and overdoses will actually be much higher than predicted by just unemployment alone.
We're currently at 50,000 suicides per year in the US as a base rate, it is not unimaginable that we would see at least 50,000 _extra_ suicide deaths attributable to a mixture of lockdown and the general socioemotional environment.
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I haven't even gotten to the philosophical battle of "freedom versus security". I am, ideologically, someone who drank the koolaid and really believes in freedom and civil liberties over "security" (which I view as illusory anyway), but _even just viewed through the lens of reducing mortality_, the evidence is stacking up that lockdown is going to do more harm than good.
Is the evidence fully settled? Of course not. But it's shocking to me how many people seem to be operating off of the projected CFR's we had in early February, shouting from the rooftops about "1 in 20" people dying (random recent case in point: https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=22952764&goto=threads%...). I don't know whether it's just that a large swath of the population already had clinical anxiety which is further magnified by social isolation and social media and news headlines, or whether something else is at play, but I'm very concerned about the state of discourse in the United States right now, and more broadly, the entire world. In fact, ironically I feel a bit luckier to be in the US than some of these other countries because in the US _every_ issue is partisan, which while entirely irrational means that roughly half the country will be in favor of ending the lockdown at any given time (the position I am advocating for, within reason, insofar as hospitals are not overwhelmed), as opposed to other places where you can get given a $1600 ticket for driving a car by yourself, based off of a superstition that _being outside_ causes Covid as opposed to exposure to infected respiratory droplets...
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EDIT: Lastly I should mention that in a perfect world we could have voluntary variolation; I would love to be able to expose myself to a controlled dose of SARS-CoV-2 and self isolate for several weeks to ensure that I can never pass on Covid to someone else. Unfortunately that would be very hard to make a reality due to the political environment, even though I am advocating for it to be totally voluntary. I was heartened to see this recent paper toying with a variant of that approach: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062687v... (I don't agree with an "Immunity Card" for ideological reasons but I'm glad we have a paper attempting to model it out which does show benefit of voluntary self exposure)
I have question. If you don't care about one out of 20 of your friends, family and neighbors drying, people you know. Why do you pretend to care about some out of work schmuck you don't know offing himself?
Seems like your argument is trying to abuse the fact that I care.
Any moron can understand the idea of a round Earth and stuff orbiting around it. It takes a genius to comprehend the sublime intricacies of ether vortex theory which explains how a flat Earth can still permit satellites to stay airborne over the plane.
I've met an extremely intelligent person who was convinced we never landed on the Moon and that Stanley Kubrick faked the whole thing and left clues to this in his production of The Shining. I've also met one who thinks the Nazis invented anti-gravity and are hiding the technology to this day in underground bases in Antarctica and South America.