I'm too lazy/busy right now to get you effective links (debugging a database migration right now) but Google AI said this:
Reported effects of CECOT on crime
Reduction in crime rates
Since Bukele declared a state of emergency in March 2022 and began mass arrests, El Salvador's crime rates have plummeted.
Homicide rate decline: The country's homicide rate fell from 103 per 100,000 people in 2015 to just 1.9 per 100,000 in 2024, one of the most drastic reductions in recent history.
Increased public safety: Many Salvadorans, long subjected to extortion and violence by powerful gangs, report feeling much safer on the streets.
A large part of Cecot is the idea of "permanent prison". I would say your entire argument is completely debunked.
> I would say your entire argument is completely debunked.
With all due respect, I did not have any argument.
I was reading your conversation, I had difficulty seeing a contradiction, so I asked a question.
You've introduced one more statement instead, "mass arrests with long-term sentences have drastically reduced crime rate in El Salvador". I see your point but this doesn't really help me with my original question. How do we know that it's the sentence terms is a significant factor (out of the combination), and not the mass arrests or something else? We don't have a control group, do we?
Paying an entire class of people to not have children is eugenics. There is a massive line between that and increasing (free) access to reproductive services.
One wrong point in this. Google Authenticator does not cloud sync by default. You specifically have to accept the cloud sync option that you are prompted with.
They do show supportive evidence of some gun laws having a meaningful effect on violent crime, so I'm not sure what they're referring to. For instance, it appears that child access prevention laws, specifically, are associated with a significant reduction in firearm homicides.[2]
RAND does complain that there is insufficient or limited evidence in a lot of areas though, like effect on mass shootings.
1Password is also now subscription only and online only. Gone are the days of a forever license and fully offline encrypted database allowing for 3rd party syncing via iCloud or others. The death of their old app went hand in hand with their race to the bottom subscription payment VC backed ecosystem. It's only time until they suffer a breach like everyone else.
What he did to win the scroll competition had to do with data analysis, not ancient history, so of course it could be relevant. But none of us, including the author of the article, knows what they're specifically doing, so it's not possible to say how relevant it is. It's a pity the reporter didn't do some reporting about that, instead of writing a hit piece calling them lackeys.
You're more confident about that than I am. I find it easy to imagine how a person who produces the first kind of analysis could be technically useful in analyzing government data. He presumably didn't know anything about ancient scrolls before working on the first thing, so he has a track record of conquering a steep learning curve.
That seems entirely relevant - getting to the bottom of a cryptic and poorly documented puzzle without any help from the contemporaries (in the case of the scrolls, because the are dead, in the case of government employees, because it’s not in their interests).
I write that only half in jest. Maybe less than half.
People disagree with you not of opinion but because you are factually wrong.
"Evidence shows lengthy prison terms do not have a significant deterrent effect on crime" https://ccla.org/criminal-justice/no-longer-prison-sentences...
"Research Shows That Long Prison Sentences Don’t Actually Improve Safety" https://www.vera.org/news/research-shows-that-long-prison-se...