In the past, one such "new role" was that of slave. In fact, we expect slavery is <10,000 years old! Yes, new roles will be created. But there's nothing to say that they'll be pleasant for us to take on.
And when have we not? When in history has mankind ever treated the idle poor well? What makes this age different, that we who can no longer work would be taken care of?
Well we're animals and "domesticated" is synonymous with "civilized", so no problem there. And I can't see why anyone would make themselves a "nuisance" when literally all their needs - and most of their desires - are being met, so whatever outcome you're referring to is extremely unlikely.
I do think there's more class granularity than that, and it's important to understand how such distinctions can make it more or less difficult to organize and cooperate. E.g. the idea of a petit bourgeoisie is useful for understanding why small business owners, despite indeed needing to work for a living, are generally against unionization.
But the core of your point certainly stands. "Higher wage" vs "lower wage" does not make a big difference in terms of our fundamental interests, and the interests of workers are far more similar than people realize.
> and the interests of workers are far more similar than people realize.
You're confusing "experiences" with "interests." Worrying about paying your mortgage isn't an "interest" you have in common with someone else. It's an "experience." But people with similar experiences can and often do have conflicting interests.
There's more than two sides here. None of the 14 parties with >1 seat in parliament fully represents my best understanding of how to improve the country and world on any time scale (long or short), but quite a few of them come reasonably close and I would vote for them without much hesitation
(Heck, I wish there were fewer parties, like if five single-topic good parties (bij1 against racism, pirate party for internet freedoms, volt for international collaboration, party animals for environmental welfare, etc., plus greenworkersparty as the current overarching big boy) would band together, it'd be a much easier choice!)
That not every country is so lucky (not all of them have free elections, or elections at all) is a shame indeed, but at least for countries like mine I'd be much happier to have a government arrange a system than a tech corporation and foreign laws. Presuming that the 2-party system you speak of is the USA's, at least both corps are governed by your own laws, that's something!
Some Western European democracies have a well-functioning democracy. The people voting are still humans, a substantial portion votes for racist parties that economically only benefit big corporations and not them, but the damage is limited because there is no winner-takes-all. Everyone has to accept compromises.
Like, most that I'm aware of? I could start naming them all but like, is there a particular feature they all have in common that you take issue with or where should we start this conversation..?
I'm sure many are tempted to dismiss this comment, but I think it's actually great. It's incredibly easy to complain about the options out there, really easy to vilify any or all of the parties as controlled by satan/evil corporations/communists/fascists.
What's harder?
Convincing enough people to matter (in some kind of election-based system) to get behind your platform - either with you as a candidate, or working to promote a candidate or party or movement that you do believe in.
People talk like their changemaking ideas are very widely held - the way people talk it's like they believe 75%+ of the country must actually agree with them - but then they don't run for office on such a popular platform that it should be a sure election win, yes even with countervailing forces such as electoral college, Senate, etc.
Things can provide value to a business while still acting as a liability -- that is to say, by virtue of their existence they cost you money, even if, when properly leveraged, they can be used as a tool to make more.
Consider a canonical loan: you get a pile of cash, but in exchange you need to make regular interest payments (plus, at some point pay back the principal, but this isn't strictly necessary -- e.g. governments used to issue perpetual bonds, which paid their coupons indefinitely). The analogy I would make with software is that the product has value, but the code you use to create it is a liability, in that it demands continuous maintenance and upkeep. Just as when you go shopping for a car loan, you look for one with the smallest interest rate -- if the debt itself were an asset, you would want more of it, which doesn't make sense. In the same way, it behooves a business to try and achieve its goals with a relatively small amount of code, not to create as much software as possible.
> We should just naturally have the natural things that we naturally want, supplied by pixies.
Is this how you see roads? Are we entitled for wanting those to be paid for by the state? What about the police? Should we have to pay whenever a police officer stops a mugging -- or is the wage of that officer, too, supplied by pixies?
These have remained unresolved questions, for me, for decades. When an internet pal was trying to found a libertarian (what noun should I use) locale, in Awdal in Somaliland (that detail of whether it was really in Somaliland or not was more debatable at the time), he first founded the Awdal Roads Company.
So obviously there are theories about how these things can be privately funded. But I can never remember the theories. Looking at that link, it was going to be toll roads. People dislike this, understandably. One problem with private roads is that you can't exactly use a competing road, which might entail moving house, or changing your plans for the day, or your job.
I have a vague notion that roads could be funded by a group of businesses that benefit from them, sort of like the W3C or a mall. Non-profit, sponsored roads, or something. (Now I'm thinking of runestones, several of which are near bridges and say "He made this bridge for his soul" or a similar statement.)
Don't ask me about police, I don't even understand crime and punishment, really.
I should maybe add that I meant "We should just naturally have the natural things that we naturally want" somewhat unironically. I feel that way, the same as anyone else. The difficulty, as observed up the thread, is in working out what's natural, or vital, or wanted and feasible. There are no pixies to magically know the answers, to my regret, only governments, and they only pretend to know. By buying and selling we can almost figure out the answers, contingently and approximately, but a lot goes wrong with that, including the friction of having to do it all the time, and "rent-seeking", whatever defines that really.
> "I have a vague notion that roads could be funded by a group of businesses that benefit from them"
Everybody benefits from roads. People who use the roads directly, benefit from being able to move around quickly. Companies which move raw materials around to make products benefit from roads. People who buy products that were moved and delivered by road are benefitting. People who can work because roads enable tourists to come, benefit from them. People whose decent coworkers were once children who were educated by teachers who got to work by road, are benefitting years later. People whose family members didn't suffer a massive property loss because they could call a plumber who got there by road, are benefitting. People who can engage in long distance trade and relationships by post, benefit.
Even though there are people harmed by roads, there's nobody who doesn't benefit from roads.
We have ways to charge people-who-use-roads-more, more money; they pay larger road tax for commercial vehicles, for larger wheelbase vehicles, for larger engine vehicles, they pay more fuel tax because they drive further and buy more fuel, they pay more tax on parts and labour because they wear out their vehicles faster, replace parts and vehicles more often, spend more on mechanic work.
I also don't really want it so that a business owns private roads, and if the road gets a sinkhole and traffic cannot flow, the business can just shrug. If ambulances can't get through, if garbage collection can't happen, if people can't get to work, if companies can't deliver products, the company doesn't have to hurry to fix it. They only care to the extent that their toll income has dropped by one road's worth, but if they fix it within a month or two that might be fast enough for them - but not fast enough for the rest of us to avoid serious consequences.
You’re missing the vital framing. You’re welcome to strawman the strawman but the respond with yet a third: “I’m not able to pay for it and will die as a result”. I’d prefer to live in a society where we avoid as many situations like that as possible. It’s the primary purpose of a government and a nation. Solving the problems of aggregating the required parts? Again it’s why we work together and it’s the point of government to solve that problem.
Good regulation doesn’t completely avoid market mechanisms it tries to tame the more brutal ones in order to maximize return to society. The roads argument is important because without roads we do not have any trade. So by collectively and somewhat proportionally, to use and income, managing the cost of road it makes everything else the market does possible.
So you're saying it's all about the concept "vital" and I should pay that more heed? But I don't think the term "vital" solves the problem of information. Natural, vital, optimal, feasible, wanted, it's all the same question, which is, uh, "how should we specifically cooperate," I guess. Government just knows less about this than the people involved do. Hayek yek yek.
Maybe you mean that in desperate situations - such as working out what to do about roads - we might as well resort to government. We do, so I guess you're right.
Lots of roads in the USA are built by private developers, then they're deeded over to the municipality for "free" so its on taxpayers to do maintenance.
And the tax income from sparse, sprawling suburbs, is not enough to cover the cost of providing sewage/electric/gas/garbage collection/firefighting/road maintenance. So either 'wealthy' suburbanites end up being subsidised by taxes from dense 'poor' inner city taxpayers, or the city has to approve a new suburb to get a chunk of income from new house sales and taxpayers to pay for the maintenance of the previous suburb's roads, in an unsustainable pyramid scheme where the city has to build more roads forever just to stand still.
I'm with you in the first half but not the second half. State governments don't allocate state money to helping suburb/exurb infrastructure unless it's specifically a state road. Never for residential roads. What happens is that maintenance gets deferred indefinitely, it goes to shit because nobody has the money for it, and the homeowners who are affected conclude government doesn't work.
> and "rent-seeking", whatever defines that really.
"The act of growing one's existing wealth by manipulating public policy or economic conditions without creating new wealth." This is in opposition to profit-seeking, where "entities seek to extract value by engaging in mutually beneficial transactions." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent-seeking
Friend, with respect, the mental blocks you're coming up against regarding roads, police, and resource distribution, within an American libertarian framework, are outlining exactly why American libertarianism (unregulated capitalism) is an untenable ideology.
Private roads don't make sense in capitalist framing because there's no possibility of competition - no market for a free hand to move in. Furthermore, there's ethical issues around the fact that roads won't be built to people who aren't as instrumentally valuable to capitalism, which is in opposition to the idea that all humans are equally intrinsically valuable. In plain words: poor people won't get roads built to them, won't be able to work, will get poorer. This is bad, and if you want to just be selfish about it, will lead to crime and social discohesion.
This argument extends to all the resources governments typically involve themselves in: electricity, sewage, water. We have direct evidence that when they try to privatize these things, it goes horribly wrong: see, the American healthcare industry, or, what's happening to the UK as it privatizes sewage. See the Texas privatized power grid.
All capitalist entities (corporations) are simple algorithms: Make profit go up. We like to tell ourselves that making profit go up is possibly only through mutually beneficial trades, aka the aformentioned profit-seeking, however that's not true in practice. The most profitable activity is slavery driven labor, and the most profitable state for a corporation to be in is monopoly. All optimized capitalist behavior selects for and trends towards that activity and that state, and literally the only way to stop this is through establishing some kind of hierarchy that allows for the limiting of corporate behavior - governments, and regulations.
Any example you give of a corporation in capitalism not trending towards slavery or monopoly has one of several explanations. 1. It's regulated, 2. It's led by someone who ethically doesn't want to trend towards slavery or monopoly, or isn't intelligent enough to do so. In the case of 2, that company will eventually be surpassed and consumed by someone with less morals, more intelligence, and more capital (more power).
> "We should just naturally have the natural things that we naturally want" somewhat unironically. I feel that way, the same as anyone else. The difficulty, as observed up the thread, is in working out what's natural, or vital, or wanted and feasible.
I completely agree, and there are other ways to do this other than capitalism, regulated or otherwise. I strongly recommend the most cited economist in history: Karl Marx. Peter Kropotkin is also very good, "The Conquest of Bread" is a great speculation of alternative systems.
> Having their output employ randomness by default is a choice, not a requirement
This is not really meaningfully true. E.g. batching, heterogeneous inference HW, and even differences in model versions can make a difference in what result you get, and these are hard to solve.
But again, these are all things that are also true of build systems.
GCC 16.1 vs. 15.2 will get you differences. GNU ld vs. gold vs. mold vs. lld will get you differences. Whether you do or do not employ LTO or other whole-program optimization vs. whether you do gets you differences.
Have you never debugged a race condition that worked on your machine but didn't work in prod, based only on how things ended up compiled in the final binary?
I'm not saying these are identical but there's a lot more similarity than you all seem to understand. And we've made compilers work well enough that a lot of you believe that they give very routine, very deterministic outputs as part of broader build systems even though nothing could be further from the truth, even today.
One of those rare papers where the code speaks for itself. They do a bunch of comparisons but the most salient is comparing Karpathy's autoresearch (verbatim, best as I can tell) vs. some HPO algorithms, and as of yet the Tree-structured Parzen estimator still wins out -- but just barely!
More interesting though is that the best results come from 'centaur' approaches, where an LLM is hooked up with a standard HPO. Somewhere around 1:3 LLM:HPO control seems to work best, with more LLM control degrading performance. But either way this method far outperforms either the naive autoresearch loop or the bare HPO approach.
> Centaur outperformed all methods including CMA-ES alone by using the LLM on only 30% of trials. The LLM receives CMA-ES's full internal state (mean vector, step-size, covariance matrix), the top-5 configurations, and the last 20 trials. A 0.8B LLM already suffices to outperform all classical and pure LLM methods. Scaling from 0.8B (0.9766) to 27B (0.9763) to Gemini Pro (0.9767) yields no improvement, suggesting a capability plateau [which Claude sliightly beats]
> We ablate the LLM ratio: higher ratios degrade performance, confirming that CMA-ES should retain majority control.
I think a lot of non-vibe-coding types also hold similar opinions -- in fact they might dislike Anthropic products even more, given that they (however few they might be) choose not to use them.
Why the insults/hostility? Why call them script-kiddies? Why the inflated egos?
How do you know what testing procedures they use? Do you honestly think they're running some kind of Ralph loop without any testing and just ship whatever looks the coolest? Really ?
> How do you know what testing procedures they use?
We don’t, but we can see the end result, so we know whatever they do isn’t adequate and it suggests they value shipping fast over quality or even listening to customer feedback.
> Do you honestly think they're running some kind of Ralph loop without any testing and just ship whatever looks the coolest? Really ?
No, but given how sharply the quality has been dropping over the past few months and how it suspiciously coincided with the time they admitted that Claude code is now 100% vibe coded, it certainly doesn’t feel too far off.
I’ve personally found the code that the AI writes, even this week (ie not some old models from months ago) to be shockingly shoddy. I’ve rewritten some AI code (created via spec driven development and a workflow that includes planning and refactoring) by hand and I’ve been very conscious of the amount of micro-design-changes I as a human make where the AI just blows forward shoehorning a solution into the design. My implementation happens b has adjusted and shifted many times to insure clear and performant logic, while the AI commits to an approach early and applied whatever brute force is necessary to make it work.
I’ve also asked it to write various tests for me or to make isolated changes and quite frankly the code was just not very good. Working, but convoluted. Even with guidance and iteration, it’s still not on a human level.
So it’s not hard to see that if you have an application as large and complex as Claude code and you let the AI do it all, that it’s going to be a mess.
I’m not against using AI for development, but you have to be realistic about its capabilities. I feel like this is where they “got high on their own supply” and are blinded to the AI’s shortcomings and failures.
They’ve said themselves that Claude code is 100% vibe coded now. That certainly meets the criteria of “script kiddies” and “high on their own supply”. The negative connotations are there on purpose because of the bugs and issues that these products have, something which presumably they wouldn’t have if there was human oversight and acknowledgement that the AI isn’t infallible.
> They’ve said themselves that Claude code is 100% vibe coded now. That certainly meets the criteria of “script kiddies”
That's not what script kiddies are at all.
> The negative connotations are there on purpose because of the bugs and issues that these products have, something which presumably they wouldn’t have if there was human oversight and acknowledgement that the AI isn’t infallible.
That's a big assumption, given that Anthropic is also currently growing by more than 3x per quarter. Maybe the problem is more complicated and we don't know everything, and they're also just simply suffering from growth pains?
Sure it is. The new age of script kiddies: they don’t know how to do it for themselves, but they can run a script (or tell the AI to) to do it for them.
> That's a big assumption
We can only see the results, which are more and more bugs, problems, regressions, etc. That’s not normal behavior. Yes all we can do is speculate, we don’t know the real reasons for the issues, but it’s clear there are issues and they appear to be getting worse.
I don’t understand the hostility and insulting tones being reasonable now.
The comment is not at all just saying “their usage of their own AI is causing these issues”, it’s just a lot of hostility, I don’t see the value of these kind of insults.
lol "hostility" - they sell a very high profile product and the issues seem to reflect bad engineering culture. therefore, I say their culture smells bad.
I just want you to know that I read over this thread and you are obviously completely right. This sort of incurious, immature stance is something I've seen become the norm on HN over the last few years, particularly when it comes to AI.
I didn't say anything like that! Like I said I just don't think that this opinion is somehow associated with "vibe coders"; if anything I'd expect the opposite.
Not if the big labs have anything to say about it! They're working to fix the 'problem', and with Mythos we no longer have any guarantees that the frontier will even be available to distill.
In the past, one such "new role" was that of slave. In fact, we expect slavery is <10,000 years old! Yes, new roles will be created. But there's nothing to say that they'll be pleasant for us to take on.
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