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they (are supposed to) produce average on average, and the output distribution is (supposed to be) conditioned on the context

Yeah but ultimately it's all just function approximation, which produces some kind of conditional average. There's no getting away from that, which is why it surprises me that we expect them to be good at science.

They'll probably get really good at model approximation, as there's a clear reward signal, but in places where that feedback loop is not possible/very difficult then we shouldn't expect them to do well.


weird, for me it was too un-human at first, taking everything literally even if it doesn't make sense; I started being more precise with prompting, to the point where it felt like "metaprogramming in english"

claude on the other hand was exactly as described in the article


wdym by "prompt and vector is small"? small as in "less tokens"? that should be a positive thing for any kind of estimation

in any case, how is this specific to transformers?


whats your setup?

it's not gonna get much more autonomous without self play and major change in architecture


as much as I hate cc, 95% of the issues there are either AI psychosis or user error


So it should be insanely easy for this world altering model to comb through them and close irrelevant ones.


torturing a model with human stupidity probably doesn't align with their position on model welfare; wondering if they tried bullying it into hacking its way out of the slop gulag


Yes, perhaps it finds it stressful operating on itself.

Maybe that's why they haven't released it - to give it a vacation?


@anthropic, send me an email if you need access to a jupyter notebook that'd motivate haiku to hack itself into and then back out of the pentagon


So "only" 250 real bugs?


imho it was more reasonable back then to claim "agi soon" -- back when nobody really knew how it scales


They weren't claiming it was dangerous because "AGI soon", that didn't come until later.

OpenAI were claiming GPT-2 was too dangerous because it could be used to flood the internet with fake content (mostly SEO spam).

And they were somewhat right. GPT-2 was very hard to prompt, but with a bit of effort it could spit out endless pages that were good enough to fool a search engine, and even a human at a first glance (you were often several paragraphs in before you realised it was complete nonsense.


we essentially have AGI right now brother

we got the A and G parts, just missing the I part but it’s coming :)

"some model I don't get to use is much better at benchmarks"

pick one or more: comically huge model, test time scaling at 10e12W, benchmark overfit


So... you're not excited because it might take a few months before we can use it or something? I don't get your comment.


Whether you're excited depends on what do you do for living and how close you are to financial independence.


I agree there are other valid reasons not to be excited about this, I just can't make sense of the ones provided above.


I think the general question is if they'll release it at all, haven't yet read anything stating that they would


Well let me introduce people to a few brand new concepts:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_to_the_bottom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_race

Of course they'll release it once they can de-risk it sufficently and/or a competitor gets close enough on their tail, whichever comes first.


I'm not excited because they might be ~lying


"oops, our latest unreleased model is so good at hacking, we're afraid of it! literal skynet! more literal than the last time!"

almost like they have an incentive to exaggerate


I'm sure they do, yet the models really are getting scarily good at this. This talk changed my view on where we're actually at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sd26pWhfmg


any particular reason you're not using a sandbox?


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