This really reinforces the idea that the AI race and the Railroad Mania of the 19th century are very similar.
So many different companies are going to have similarly powerful ai that there will be no moat around it and it will be cheap. They will never earn their investment back.
I suspect this is the real reason behind Anthropic limiting subscriptions to their own products and keeping API prices several times higher than comparable models. Applications more sticky than API users and less technical users more sticky than programmers (ie Cowork more sticky than Code).
Anthropic generally seem more into living within market discipline and market signals of some sort. Products with margins, even if it's sort of irrelevant considering R&D costs and capital inflow.
That said, there's nothing like the real thing.
The risk is something like the railroad bubble and the dotcom. Over-investement, circular revenue and a timeline that doesn't work.
They actually need it because the demand is higher than expected from consumers. And because they need a moat since every big corporation trying to capture that market too, they need the moat for the biggest compute and energy they can get.
Also businesses is were the money at, not regular consumers (especially tech-savvy folk who run models locally).
At least he says he's doing that. It doesn't really make sense since you're not going to achieve an advanced node from a standing start in a practical time frame and cost.
Nah. Everybody is talking about ai. Everybody is using it. It's by far the most popular new tool human beings are using currently. As popular as mobile phones or spoons. And maybe as disruptive as the steam engines. AI companies are becoming the largest software companies on the planet. Everything points into that direction. Trillions of dollars are waiting in the market to be collected.
Right, but the question is whether the companies producing foundation models will capture that value or not. Right now it seems like tokens might end up just being a commodity sold at cost plus, and companies higher up in the supply chain will make the money. Electricity changed the world but electricity companies capture very little of that value.
Based on what? A lot of this is vibes and FOMO; just like any economic bubble.
There is no objective evidence of anything you’ve said. It isn’t even clear if AI has contributed positively to global economic growth. It reminds me a lot of the late 90s and the dot-com mania. Slapping a domain on a commercial would make your stock go up even if there was no substance to any of it.
The real shame is this mania drowns out serious, practical use cases because when the bubble collapses, the market will throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Not the parent, but I guess that if AGI happened and was competent enough to trade markets, they'd earn the company back their investment in a short period.
They claimed this bolsters defenses, but the United States and Israel have run thousands upon thousands of sorties and they’ve hit one old aircraft 30 year old aircraft?
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