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I have the exact same hardware. Was going to do the same thing with the 122B model … I’ll just keep paying Anthropic and he models are just that good. Trying out Gemini too. But won’t pay OpenAI as they’re going to be helping Pete Kegseth to develop autonomous killing machines.

The best part of this post is learning about xcancel

Exactly.

Pete Kegseth is unhinged. I’m siding with Anthropic here

Great. This stupid AI tulip craze is going to keep going.

"Don't be curmudgeonly. Thoughtful criticism is fine, but please don't be rigidly or generically negative."

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html


It’s not craze. It’s technology shift. Bitcoin and 3D printing were craze. It’s like a move from analog photography to digital. I am telling you this as a very conservative person. Even for me it’s helpful.

3D printing is helpful too. The infrastructure created during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s was also helpful. The UK is still profiting from the railway infrastructure created during the railway craze of the 1840s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania). The question is just how much of the valuation of AI companies is because they are useful and how much is speculation...

3D printing has a CAGR of 18-25%, not exactly 'were craze'

> 3D printing were craze

That's certainly a take, industry loves it. Sure, all that "everybody will print widgets at home instead of going to the store" stuff was never going to happen, but 3d printing is nonetheless here to stay.


I do not long back to the days of reused boxes and ducktape as homes for my electronics. It's here to stay.

It's a manufacturing technique that is helpful for prototyping and makes sense some types of small scale manufacturing.

But it's not magical, and not much different to injection moulding or something in concept.

Almost everything created with home level 3d printers is plastic junk you can buy for a few dollars on aliexpress (without weird rough edges).


It can be both a craze and a technology shift. AI isn't going away, it will transform some industries. But right now it's overhyped, overfunded and due a trip back to reality.

It most definitely COULD be a craze from the perspective of scope of investment, societal impact and timing. No one surfing the crest of this wave could be described as "conservative".

So how much are you willing to pay for it?

Personally at this point my combined AI spend is the most expensive recurring monthly subscription I have, and that’s even with my company also paying for the AI tools I use at work.

If it weren’t subsidized I would pay more. Wouldn’t be happy about it but I would do it.

At this stage in the game I don’t really understand where this skepticism of the value these tools provides comes from.


> At this stage in the game I don’t really understand where this skepticism of the value these tools provides comes from.

Fear


I get it. I’m scared too. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t.

Actually it is not about this stage. It is about the sustainability of this when training data runs out and there is less and less human generated content.

An echo cannot go on forever!


> Actually it is not about this stage. It is about the sustainability of this when training data runs out

This is an argument from 2024. Somehow, the models have continued to improve.

If they stopped improving today they are good enough as they already are to generate profound change.

The wave front is already visible, we’re just on the shore waiting for the impact.


When training data runs out, they usefulness will diminish quickly. They will still be useful for searching documents etc, but I guess they are not good at that even now.

When training data runs out, their usefulness will stop growing quickly. Why should their usefulness diminish?

Because they would not be up-to date with programming languages, tools, best practices etc.

May be there is some way to keep the model up-to date in less dramatic ways. But I think something gotto give..

I mean, even now the vibe coded stuff is reprehensible.


20 bucks a month

> It’s not craze. It’s technology shift.

It is a bubble with extreme levels of debt + funding from too many promises from companies that are in these sort of rounds.

People being consumed by the hype will also be completely consumed by the crash.

Comments like this is exactly how a 2000 and a 2008 style crash will happen.


> Bitcoin and 3D printing were craze.

What bitcoin gave us essentially? Huge pump and dump schemes coordinated by big hands? Crypto investments which made 95% of investors poorer? What's left? Maybe 0.01% of it was beneficial.


Freedom from overregulated and antiquated retail banking especially wrt cross-border transfers.

I guess it isn't that noticeable from inside US, but the rest of the world is grateful.


> the rest of the world is grateful.

Maybe speak for yourself? As part of the rest of the world, I am not grateful.


And I do. Speak, that is.

"This time it's different!"

They’re going to cave to keep the legation from destroying their business. This admin has gone full idiocracy.

Was hoping they’d fight this tooth and nail and not leave their values.

Meh. I wanted to build out a new ITX pc. Won’t be able to at these inflated insane prices.

This is to appease pumpkin potus and his merry band of idiots

Update: For the record I do hate the POTUS. He’s ruined our reputation around the world. Allowed things like USAID to die removing aid from millions leading to many deaths. He’s incompetent and very stupid which will likely get us killed either in some war or in the next pandemic. Tarrifs are a tax. Congress raises taxes. If you support his right to tax without congress then go live under a king. I’m an American. We don’t want kings. Need I go on?

And hating POTUS for what he’s doing to the country is my right as an American. We weren’t perfect. But we were at least respected. Now the world laughs at us.

He works for me. And you. And he’s doing a garbage job at his job. Why continue to give him a free pass. Would you give someone like this in your team a pass?

Here’s hoping his managers (congress) fires him (impeaches) him.


The same thing could be said after polishing with AI and it will be a fact

As stated, it is offensive

You need to do appeasement as needed. Business is business.


Your ability to rationalize would make you a king in a true failed state where might makes right and appeasement actually works. Stand for something or you’ll fall for anything like justifying the moron in chief.

So what? Even if you hate who the president is, it is in the best interest of everyone that the president does a good job. Wanting the president to fail and millions to suffer is scorched earth hatred, not strategy.

This President isn't doing a good job on really any level. Its not that I want anyone to fail, it's that the President today is currently in a state of failure, and those failures like enriching himself can have long term devastating effects on our society.

[flagged]


How many American Citizens have to be murdered and how many human rights have to be violated before it is a bad job?

Obama managed to deport many without the vitriol or the killing of American citizens. Are you a one issue voter? Just showing a blind eye to everything so long as no brown folks cross into this country?

According to the LA Times, that statistic is misleading: https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-obama-deportations-2014... (“A closer examination shows that immigrants living illegally in most of the continental U.S. are less likely to be deported today than before Obama came to office, according to immigration data… On the other side of the ledger, the number of people deported at or near the border has gone up — primarily as a result of changing who gets counted in the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency’s deportation statistics.”).

I believe that the premise of the immigration laws is correct—that exceeding certain levels of immigration harms society for various reasons that have nothing to do with protecting sunscreen sales—just as Clinton and Obama claimed to do.

Again, you can disagree with the premise. But my entire life I saw presidential candidates promise to fix this particular problem, and Trump succeeded.


If they were cooked then they're cooked now. "Trump succeeded" remains unsupported by the same logic. Good shot on the googling and 12 year old article though.

No, it’s not the same logic because there’s two different numbers: border crossings versus deportations. Nobody is saying the numbers are “cooked.” Just that you have to understand the methodology to compare Obama and Trump.

The LA Times article explains that the deportations number includes deportations of people who were caught shortly after illegal crossing. During Obama, there were a large number of border crossings. So anyone who got caught shortly after crossing was counted as a deportation. But border crossings dropped to nearly zero under Trump. That drives down the deportation numbers. The low hanging fruit is gone.


This is the same as saying to a woman in an abusive relationship: “it’s in the best interest of the kids and the family and everyone else that you put on a happy face and make it look like he’s a good husband and father even if he beats you”

Even if you hate the orange guy, there's something to be said for his approach of using threats to achieve results instead of carrots like tax breaks.

Haha very telling that this is what you find laudable. Onshoring manufacturing … it’s a low margin low skill (relative) industry compared to the services and things of the modern economy. We import goods made cheaper in other countries and benefit from it in consumer surplus… that the educated here on HN can invert a tree or whatever the latest leet code garbage is being asked in interviews but never took and economics class or basic ethics is beyond me.

If you were correct, it would be trivial for Apple to reshore the manufacturing. But it’s not. Because what China has proven is that, when you outsource the “low margin low skill” stuff, everything going up the chain will follow. China used its low-margin low skill work to bootstrap the rest of the stack, and now they can make air to air missiles with range exceeding US missiles: https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/china-first-close-...

Margin is the wrong way to look at it. Law and finance are high margin work. But lawyers won’t help you win a war.


> China used its low-margin low skill work to bootstrap the rest of the stack, and now they can make air to air missiles with range exceeding US missiles: https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/china-first-close-...

We’ve got to get you some better sources, mate. This is a straight-up Russian propagandist pretending to operate out of the UK while having a mailing address in South Korea.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/military-watch-magazine-bias/


Fact check websites are tankie propaganda. But this particular point about air to air missiles is well attested.

> Fact check websites are tankie propaganda.

Notice that this doesn’t contradict your link being shoddy. Blindly reiterating Russian propaganda is very patriotic of you.

> But this particular point about air to air missiles is well attested.

Please don’t pretend that I was disputing the expected range of the PL-17; that’s clearly not the point I raised.


Business will continue to business. POTUS is a failed businessman many times over who only increased his wealth by whoring himself to our enemies be extorting our allies.

I’m on the right side of history. Are you?


I mean, now he's just straight up taking money from the treasury.

Well I was playing doom 2 and tinkering with old computers. Guess I ended up doing what I loved despite a brief stint where I fancied myself some big wig powerful broker on Wall Street having studied economics at uni.

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