>Many of the solutions to these problems require money – running more buses, improving stop amenities, or upgrading signals – or the political will to take away street space for busways and transit lanes. But stop balancing can have a meaningful impact on these issues for a fraction of the price.
To me, this exemplifies a type of thinking that is endemic to policymakers in the US. We can tinker at the edges, we can use computers to optimize what we have, but the idea of using money and political will to change anything at all in a meaningful way is anathema, beyond the pale. Giving up before even getting started. Sure, optimize away, but don't expect me to be inspired by pushing papers around.
That level of risk aversion has been burned into policymakers, especially at the local level. Wasting taxpayer money by letting an inefficient system continue to degrade makes less news than doing so by investing in a risk that failed, and gets a lot fewer people screaming at you in public and sending you death threats.
Yes! "We tried nothing and we're all out of ideas" is not inspiring! Mamdani threw cash at the problem of snow on the streets and now, huh, suddenly there's not so much snow on the streets of NYC compared to previous blizzards, who would have thought.
The issue is that all money-throwing needs to be balanced by careful thought. This cycle the money-throwing at snow plowing worked. Next cycle, it will not be as effective, as more people who want to "game" the rewards will enter the equation. So every cycle, along with money, some thought will need to go into improving the system or coming up with alternate solutions.
I don't think that is the issue. This article and your comment advocates that in lieu of more money, we throw more thought at it, in the name of balance. Weak! Put some thought into preventing the gaming of the system, yes, but keep the money flowing to getting the work done, not overthinking how to do the work.
A large chunk of problems faced by regular Americans can be solved by money equivalent to a rounding error compared to how much we spend on military, private health subsidies, interest payments, corporate benefits. Yet the "who will pay for it??" narrative never comes up when talking about any of these, only school lunches and buses.
I'm not a chess engine guy, but I've talked to some, and, from what I recall, there is a very interesting difference between an engine like Leela Chess Zero (lc0) and Stockfish. Stockfish internally calculates in centipawns while lc0 calculates in WDL's. Stockfish has a model they use that converts their centipawn calculation to WDL's, but it's not _really_ WDL of the position, it's just their estimate of it according to a probabilistic model. Same in reverse applies to lc0. Why I find this interesting is that it shows how they come from different generations, with Stockfish representing the old deterministic style with deep search, and lc0 being directly inspired by Alpha Zero and the new generation of engines based on neural nets. Stockfish has by now adopted the best of both worlds (deep search with a small neural net) and is the better for it, but I still think the developers of both engines banter over who is really producing the True WDL numbers for a given position.
For my part, I find that WDL is more amendable to interpretation. Being up 5 pawns worth of material sort of makes sense, but being told you have a 95% chance of winning makes more sense to me at first blush.
To your last point, the centipawns thing doesn't make a whole lot of sense from an interpretation perspective because it is so shallow. WDL can give you much more insight into how tame or chaotic things are. A 1 pawn evaluated advantage with a 95% chance to win is wildly different from a similar evaluation and a 50% chance to win. The first position likely has an obvious tactic that leads to a win, the latter may require perfect play for 15 moves that only a computer can calculate.
Also, from a computer perspective, a >= 1 pawn is usually sufficient for a computer to win 100% of the time so it's not really interesting and says very little about whether a person could win 100% of the time.
Yep, exactly. I spent a lot of time trying to figure out better ways for interpreting the evaluations of engines for https://www.schachzeit.com/en/openings/barnes-opening-with-d... and I ended up liking WDL much better than centipawns. A blunder defined in terms of decreasing your chance of winning by such and such percentage is, to me, a much better definition than a blunder losing such and such material. What does that mean? It makes sense to me now, but it took a long while.
Relatedly, there is an interesting thing that lc0 has been doing as well, where it takes the contempt concept even further, and can beat you with queens odd. https://lczero.org/blog/2024/12/the-leela-piece-odds-challen... It assumes it is better than you and that it shouldn't just give up because you might be up a knight, rook or even queen.
If there is a 15 move sequence that leads to a guaranteed win, stockfish would not call it a 1 pawn advantage (given the sufficient calculation time) instead calling it a won position.
I think you may be mistaking your understanding of stockfish as shallow in that regard.
Where the big differences might emerge is in strategic mid game positions without any clear tactics or forcing moves. There lc0 can somehow "feel" that a position seems better.
It's always made as much sense to me as being up or down money in Monopoly, or points in basketball. Stating the W/L value of a position feels like an weird mixing of the present and future to me. Of course the centipawn value holds an implicit prediction of the future, but the indirection makes it more palatable.
I learned chess when I was 5, and didnt have a chess computer in the first like 5 years and by then I have progressed quite far.. so i cannot really tell
Makes sense. I started learning how to play Chess when I was ~30 and my tutors were just chess engines, game reviews on chess.com and whatever books I found interesting enough to get through. I have fun, and that's all I'll ever have, no titles or anything. The centipawn stuff makes sense now, but it took a while.
The very first program I ever wrote that I was proud of was a CIA world factbook scraper and report generation script in High School. A hard ass of a teacher had people grab a random assortment of facts about random countries on there and put it all into word, under the guise that it taught you something about the countries. It was entirely formulaic and I remember the lightning realization I could use the Java I was learning in AP class. I made a bet with my roommate that I could write the program to do it faster than it took him to actually do it. I went over by a half hour, but I posted it to facebook and there was much rejoicing in the class.
A plea to the various lab engineering teams: please create a json format or whatever that lets me configure this with voices locally. I am a happy user as of late of the Codex app by Open AI. It would be great if I could just give it some JSON somehow and it just works. I suppose skills can do this and I will try that later on. But I think this stuff matters, and it would be nice to have it built in and encouraged.
Every since the start of the industrial revolution, children became an economic burden instead of a benefit. Once man power was replaced by machines, it stopped making sense to have so many kids and the total fertility rate started to decline. The data is sparse prior to 1950, which is coincidentally when there was a huge global post war baby boom, but visit https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate and scroll down to births per woman and look at someplace like Sweden. It was already going down! Prior to modernity and its ills. TFR was higher when people felt like they had to have kids to survive a harsh world.
It was declining before the introduction of modern birth control! As well, there were other versions of birth control prior to hormonal birth control, less effective of course, but still practiced with that intent.
It was inspired by 2025 by thomaswc, a 45x45 connections-like puzzle. Globs jumped off from there and it's been very fun to make. I have AI generating the puzzle groups and it keeps surprising me everyday with what it comes up with. I've got demos up for over 20 different languages, and many different sizes of puzzle. Just recently, I got the puzzle to be generated daily for American English, British English, High German and European Spanish. It can also do custom theme puzzles like the following:
There is still some bugs I am tracking down (open the page in a private browser if you hit stale data) but the game has really come together lately and been a lot of fun, I hope you all like it!
December a few years ago, pre-ChatGPT I did Advent of Code in Rust. It was very difficult, had never done the full month before, barely knew Rust and kept getting my ass kicked by it. I spent a full Saturday afternoon solving one of the last problems of the month, and it was wonderful. My head hurt and I was reading weird Wikipedia articles and it was a blast. Nothing is stopping me from doing that sort of thing again, and I feel like I might need to, to counteract the stagnation I feel at times mentally when it comes to coding. That spark is still in there I feel, buried under all the slop, and it would reappear if I gave it the chance, I hope. I have been grieving for the last years I think and only recently have I come to terms with the changes to my identity that llm's have wrought.
It is a shame that jart got control of @OccupyWallSt and occupywallst.com and never gave it up. It seems like her politics and views are very out of line with many of the people who were originally involved in that movement. Repurposing occupywallst.com for something like this compared to it's origin is a big disappointing contrast. https://web.archive.org/web/20111021162924/http://www.occupy...
I was the one who registered it. Occupy as a movement has always been inclusive of people with different points of view. My job running the website and twitter has always been to give the people a voice. I think that's important, don't you? The only guy with more credibility than me in Occupy is Micah White but he's been growing vegetables in Oregon ever since he visited Davos a few years back. So I'm the best you've got.
> My job running the website and twitter has always been to give the people a voice. I think that's important, don't you?
Do you truly believe in your heart of hearts that people posting neo-MOASS wish fulfillment suffer from a lack of a voice, and no place for them to be heard? Take this seriously. More important than "a voice" is consistency and clarity of communication. The people involved in occupy wall street in 2011 weren't occupying it because they wanted to eventually join it, and I don't think that their form of economic justice would be for Wall Street to lose money in a gigantic market crash that again would result in taxpayer-funded bailouts that spurred the first protests. For transparency's sake, what are your market positions today?
> The only guy with more credibility than me in Occupy is Micah White but he's been growing vegetables in Oregon ever since he visited Davos a few years back. So I'm the best you've got.
As an outsider to all this, it's funny how these movements always crumble as soon as there is any mainstream recognition.
You have X complaint against an institution. Let's say the institution accepts and reforms somewhat. It's pretty rare that the complainant will pat themselves on the back and say job well done. It's ultimately a game of diminishing returns.
If you have a hammer, it's not just that everything is a nail - you must find enough nails to justify continuing to use the hammer.
> As an outsider to all this, it's funny how these movements always crumble as soon as there is any mainstream recognition.
It crumbled when the physical encampments were forcibly removed by the police. I mean, even at the tiny encampment of UC Davis-- essentially a few camping tents-- the students got pepper sprayed and hauled off. Remember that meme? Many of those same students also faced serious jail time for a protest outside Washington Mutual Bank. It's probably difficult to sustain a movement under those conditions, no?
In any case, the message that resonated across the U.S. encampments is essentially what turned into Bernie Sanders two runs for president. That, the group behind AOC's House run, and many other important grassroots movements are the legacy of OWS. Whatever the deal is with jart's website is orthogonal to all this-- I've literally never heard about her association with OWS outside of HN.
Justine, do you think that readers here don't have eyes? The page linked is a call to financial action that, if the advice is followed, will result in yet another unsophisticated ETF pump and dump at best and a call to financial suicide at worst.
You are personally underwriting propaganda for something you are very likely invested in, targeting the most credulous. For it to appear on a site called 'Occupy Wall Street' is deliciously ironic.
Here's my disclosure: I am completely divested for both the US and Japanese market, except for transient USD cash holdings. I don't have a horse in this race. Will you follow suit?
I know very little of what happened in NYC years ago, but I would tell anyone reading the site now that it is run by actively malevolent speculators.
I do, however, know a few of your associates. Stop hanging out with grungy, unwashed sex pests, they aren't as smart as they pretend to be, and you should know that by now. It's unbecoming and frankly sad. You have the means to start life anew elsewhere, and you should take that opportunity now.
> Stop hanging out with grungy, unwashed sex pests
And that's where you lost credibility with me. I haven't the knowledge of these topics to express an intelligent opinion and I was considering your arguments, but then you went and lowered the bar. There's no need to level rude insults.
I'm a Leftist, fwiw. While I don't know enough to speak intelligently on this, I do resent the people at the top who plunder society for their own gains so I'm spiritually supportive of anyone who's against them.
It's also why I addressed her directly by name. I would really like her to leave the cult she's in, but I refuse to mince words about the nature of that group. She knows who the r*pists in that community are. I lost a friend to those people and I hold a grudge.
None of this is a secret and I could give a shit if me bringing it up isn't 'credible' to you.
Other than the short 'don't take financial advice from internet strangers' PSA, this isn't about you.
Why don't you look inside yourself and try to figure out why you don't find it 'credible' that there might unchecked sexual violence in a insular community of wealthy, mostly male, SV crypto fascists (who are on record warmly discussing feudalism and the return of chattel slavery to the US).
81% of women in the US have been sexually harassed, myself included. Only 2% of reports are false. Your default assumptions are fucked. If you are thinking 'well.. none of the women I know have been...' You are wrong, they just don't feel safe enough around you to talk about it, and for good reason.
People who invite themselves into conversations solely to tone police and cast doubt on allegations of sexual violence are the furthest thing from an ally. Spiritually support me by learning how to not be that person around the women in your life.
You in particular are my main criticism of Occupy as a movement. They lacked any sort of structure, shunned it in fact, that would have ripped control of these resources away from you once it became clear that you disagreed politically with the vast majority of the people involved. That you were allowed to keep control of those resources is emblematic of how Occupy could let all that energy dissipate into nothing.
Co-opting potentially effective political movements is how the people in control stay in control. Once you start noticing it, you see it time and time again.
What resources? OccupyWallSt.org only accepted enough donations to keep the 1-800 number and website online. I was smart enough to understand back then that an unemployed 26 year old activist living in a park wasn't qualified to manage the capital that was being offered to us. So what did I do? I gave you about twenty different links for various projects on the donation page to choose from.
Thank you for another example of why Occupy was doomed to fail, I had not considered that you had control over the donation flow. Instead of working together as a group and finding somebody more responsible than yourself to manage the incoming capital, you diverted it away from the movement and dispersed it to the winds. Was that decision made collectively by the group? Or did you take it upon yourself to do so? Control over the domains and twitter account, along with the incoming flow of donations are the resources that you had and Occupy let you squander.
Every group that showed up in the park and was working on a project, they could come to me and ask that their donation link be posted on the OccupyWallSt.org donate page. I'm a tech person. I registered a domain. I play it neutral. I included everything from basket weaving to aspiring governments. One of these groups called itself NYCGA or the NYC General Assembly. They were the political organization that claimed dominion over Occupy Wall Street and the public elected to give them the lion's share of donations. The guy who ended up with most of their money, if memory serves me right, is a tattoo artist named Pete Dutro. So these days I'm a lot more opinionated. The Pete Dutros of the financial community took out trillions of dollars of loans from Japan and the economy is crashing right now because of them. We should be focusing on reallocating that capital.
What a fall from grace, trying to fashion buying calls on FXY as a revolution! Put this on your own personal website and redirect that page, let the domain maintain some dignity.
This was posted on OccupyWallSt.com. The OccupyWallSt.org website is still exactly as it was in its full 2011 looking glory. I've been dragging my heels on renewing the SSL certificate however everything's still there. It's even been cataloged and archived by the Library of Congress for posterity. So the dignity of the movement has been secured and is continuing to be respected. Your voices are now a permanent artifact in America's historical record.
Because I'm speaking for the millions of people who lost homes, who lost jobs, and lost hope in a society where the only answers they're being given are distractions. Folks deserve to hear a more plausible explanation of why Wall Street has crashed the economy yet again than Trump going to war in Greenland. I'm also speaking for the millions of tech workers whose RSUs are going to be worth a whole lot less because of the yen traders being liquidated, even though those workers have done nothing wrong and have been marvelous at their jobs. Worst of all, the media will pin the blame on them for the crash. The rest of the working class has already been whipped to the brink of death, so tech is the new whipping boy for everything that goes wrong these days.
Can you say where that (in its original form) appears? Closest I can find are "I will make much of your voices" and "Your voices: for your voices I have fought", but neither of these relate to any type of permanence.
Yep, occupy may have had the moral high ground but they squandered it because they were the modern day hippy idealists with no boots-on-the-ground (or feet touching grass) know-how to actually effect change in a protracted way.
> It fueled extremism and populism, both on the left and on the right.
I think you're confusing the Occupy Movement with the housing crisis itself.
Any anti-establishment/libertarian right-wingers would have already gotten energized years before by the Tea Party movement. Even Ron Paul's million dollar "money bomb" in donations happened a few months before Occupy. And what's the path from Occupy to right-wing extremism? Even on Fox News Occupy was a short-term blip.
The "one percent" slogan made its way directly into Bernie's campaign, so that tracks with what I assume you're calling left-wing populism. But what do you mean by "extremism" here? If it's violent extremism I don't see the connection. And if it's left-wing anarchist movements, have those grown in any significant way since the 2010s?
I understand my comment might give one the impression that I am confusing the chicken (the financial crisis) and the egg (the Occupy movement).
Since Occupy could not have existed without the Crisis, certainly some blame goes to the Crisis.
That said, Occupy shaped perception of the Crisis. Occupy trained the public to view the Crisis in terms of bad people, instead of systemic problems like incentives.
The Occupy movement, with its permanent smoke-pit adolescents like Tim Pool, Matt Taibbi, Max Keiser, and so on, has influenced public discourse ever since.
I cannot prove that Occupy, rather than the Financial Crisis alone, made possible our current dysfunctional politics (with its focus on scapegoating, conspiracy theories, magical thinking), but I notice echos of its 'memes' (in the original sense of the word), and its attitudes - not to mention I notice some of the actual participants.
I wish I could edit this, because now that I reread it, 'chicken and egg' doesn't make sense. It's more a question of root cause. So a better metaphor might be whether to assign blame to a misbehaving child or to the abusive father who raised him.
Anyone attempting to build a movement might find it interesting how Pumping Station One in Chicago is governed. It's a maker space but run by people who care (at least from my experience when I was a member back in 2015/2016). The process for electing leadership and holding members accountable was very democratic and fair, from my experience. They open-source as much as they can about how they organize:
> This #ows movement empowers real people to create real change from the bottom up. We want to see a general assembly in every backyard, on every street corner because we don't need Wall Street and we don't need politicians to build a better society.
Maybe at some point those people will understand that high-school approach doesn't work in the real world.
Look at the amount of change they brought, look at the amount of change that a single person like Donald Trump has brought (for better or worse, this is not an endorsement).
Oh God. Anyone aligning themselves with Yarvin in anyway is highly highly questionable. He wants to completely destroy US democracy, and is at least partially responsible for the mess the US is currently mired in.
If by "the movement," you mean Occupy Wall St., one of the things about it as an organization is that it didn't have a mechanism to exclude people really, if I understand correctly. So there was a pretty broad slice of political philosophies united around the common idea "The system that rewards risk-takers for taking risks with other people's money while consolidating the consequences on those who did not consent to the risks is fundamentally flawed."
I know what you're referring to, but this one is well-documented. When Tunney and I were last in overlapping circles, she self-described as techno-fascist. It's pretty well-documented (though I apologize for assuming it was common knowledge; since I was there and knew of her to only one or two degrees of separation, it's easy for me to forget she's not necessarily a well-known name).
... also, my intent was not to cast aspersions. When last I heard the name, I had a particular political leaning associated to the name and I was wondering if it had changed.
Yes, that's correct! Took her about a year off and on, he had made a little app for her to go through and categorize everything.
As an aside, for about $200, you can ask a true/false question of every word in the English language with a frontier LLM, and get mostly good answers. I make word games in my free time and was sort of shocked when I realized how cheap intelligence has been getting.
$200? Does this use reasoning? Does it involve forgetting to use KV caching?
This should cost well under $1. Process the prompt. Then, for each word, input that word and then the end of prompt token, get your one token of output (maybe two if your favorite model wants to start with a start-of-reply token), and that’s it.
Yes, it uses reasoning. I tried without it, and at the time with OpenAI's api, it was not giving such good answers. Reasoning improved it a fair amount.
To me, this exemplifies a type of thinking that is endemic to policymakers in the US. We can tinker at the edges, we can use computers to optimize what we have, but the idea of using money and political will to change anything at all in a meaningful way is anathema, beyond the pale. Giving up before even getting started. Sure, optimize away, but don't expect me to be inspired by pushing papers around.
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