Election integrity requires as much of the mechanics of elections to be transparent to all observers, including politically-disfavord groups, as possible.
If the voter rolls are state secrets, only available to approved insiders, how can you know they're not filled with regime sockpuppets?
> If the voter rolls are state secrets, only available to approved insiders, how can you know they're not filled with regime sockpuppets?
Here in Germany, you can show up in person at the election office to check the voter rolls, although in practice you don't ever need to do so because registration of your residential address is mandatory and it automatically also updates voter rolls. Errors here are extremely, extremely rare as a result.
> Useful comparison, but to my point: is that sufficient to detect fake entries created by incumbent insiders?
Scandals regarding voter roll fraud are extremely rare. I can only think of one scandal from 2014 where a farmer was alleged to have seasonal laborers register and vote for the party of his wife by mail [1]. In the end, the case against the farmer ended up being tossed on insufficient evidence.
> Also: has that in-person mechanism ever been used by stalkers/abusers to find their hiding targets?
If someone is in hiding and legally protected, it is not allowed to contest these entries [2] since the threshold is very high. For "normal" people, you have to bring clear evidence that fraud may have occurred.
I don't want grocery store circulars on my front porch. They're trash, they're bad for the environment, an eyesore, literal physical spam. But our municipality can't ban them, because First Amendment jurisprudence says so. The circulars are speech and expression at their nadir of protection (commercial speech not of any public or artistic interest), and they're protected.
Good luck getting in the way of political advertising, which is speech and expression at the apogee of its protection.
> Good luck getting in the way of political advertising, which is speech and expression at the apogee of its protection.
Again: what exactly requires candidates to know your name and address to send you propaganda via mail? There already exist bulk mail services that allow you to target specific areas, addresses and even limited demographics [1].
Campaign speech isn't simply the right to address whatever demographics your mail services happens to have decided matter (in the context of a campaign, that is itself a political decision, core protected activity). It's the right to organize around specific voters.
In local politics (which is where I engage mostly), these kinds of decisions get made on individual voter bases at times.
I want to be clear here that while I believe the principles I'm describing to be normatively good, I'm also being descriptive; the restrictions you'd advocate for would almost certainly be held unconstitutional.
"Squatting on a trademark" makes no sense. You might as well say that I'm squatting on my name because I'm not allowing other people to sign contracts for me.
You can clone someone's project without pretending to be them. They literally put his bio up. Call it something else, put your own bio up.
...crediting him as the author of the original, not the mac port.
without commenting on anything to do with trademarks, in what way is that even slightly pretending to be him? why would they put another, separate bio alongside as the person doing a mac port if they were intending to masquerade as the original author?
This is entirely backwards. AI should be used as a tool to tutor kids. Kids shouldn't be learning about AI. I thought the point of AI was that people didn't have to know anything to talk to it. Not to cheat at writing exercises.
Writing exercises that children produce in school are immediately thrown into the trash after being graded and reviewed. The product is supposed to be better educated children, not better written papers.
> The kind of person with lots of evidence that they're good
But what evidence is there that anyone is "good"? The fact that I am an insider to one event does not make me an insider to all events. If I were an insider to many events, I would probably have better ways to profit off of them. Placing a big bet is something I would do if I knew one thing.
> It's useful for things like elections, where though popular media might push one line of thought primarily, the markets will adjust to be closer to the reality. Pretty visible in the 2024 elections where if you followed mainstream media at all, you probably wouldn't realize the markets had Trump at a 60% chance to win just before the election.
But what exactly is the use of that? And as another example from the 2024 elections, every media outlet was pushing the validity of some stupid Iowa poll that only insiders even knew about, and was obviously just a random survivor that happened to get a few things right in a row. The prediction of a Harris landslide entirely flipped the odds in the prediction markets; if you had insider knowledge about that poll, you would have been able to make a fortune. If you had helped market that poll, you could have made a fortune.
The problem with prediction markets as predictors I think is that that they assume there will be a lot of insiders, rather than a very few. It gets confused with normal price discovery in a large, diverse and competitive market. Instead, prediction markets just match the (opinion) x (perceived trustworthiness) of the media landscape. If anything, insiders have a motivation to push the markets to be more inaccurate. They want to bet against them.
edit: but to restate my initial question - what's the use of polls that converge to the correct answer about 10 seconds before the actual votes come in? I asked the same thing when people were lusting over Nate Silver, and I still haven't gotten an answer. I understand using polls to guide your election expenditures; I do not understand the intense interest in them among spectators, or when the election is already mostly run.
I thought the entire point of prediction markets was to attract insiders with a way to turn their knowledge into cash. Doesn't that imply that everybody else is going to be net negative?
That's why death pools were supposed to be equivalent to assassination markets. Somebody would kill the person to win.
The only way (I would think) to make money if you're not an insider is to take advantage of the fact that most people believe in the Law of Averages and consistently err to moderation, so they overestimate small chances and underestimate large chances. Just bet with the crowd when the crowd (and reason) is overwhelmingly on one side. That depends on the vig being low enough not to obliterate that little bit of expected profit, though.
This is the assertion. You can recognize it because the obvious reply is that it is not at all a representative example, but one that you just handpicked. You're question-begging.
Twin Cities, 2010-2014: 95 pedestrians killed in 3,069 crashes. 28 drivers were charged and convicted of a crime, most often a misdemeanor ranging from speeding to careless driving. ~70% of pedestrian-killing drivers faced no criminal charge[0].
Bay Area, 2007-2011 (CIR investigation): sixty percent of drivers that were at fault, or suspected of being at fault, faced no criminal charges. Over 40 percent of drivers charged did not lose their driver's licenses, even temporarily[1].
Philadelphia, 2017–2018: just 16 percent of the drivers were charged with a felony in fatal crashes[2].
Los Angeles, 2010–2019: 2,109 people were killed in traffic collisions on L.A. streets... and nearly half were pedestrians. Booked on vehicular manslaughter: 158 people. The vast majority of drivers who kill someone with their car are not arrested[3].
I can literally do this all day. The original statement was correct, the case representative.
Now we’re talking. So much misinformation in this thread. There’s a reason that the saying, “if you want to kill someone, do it with a car” exists. Fortunately, it seems like judges are finally starting to wake up to the idea that it’s unreasonable for drivers to claim ignorance about the increased risks (and thus intent) of making poor/illegal decisions when being the wheel.
This thread talks about driverless cars; vehicular manslaughter requires negligence or intent, do you want to find narrowed statistics for driverless cars that are restricted to negligence or intent?
Criminality is basically just a checkbox for this stuff. Most of the time people wouldn't be going to jail for these sorts of crimes, it'd just be big fines and penalties. There's almost always administrative/civil infractions of the same or similar name that has the same or greater punishment but are far more efficient for the state to prosecute because the accused has fewer rights.
It makes for good appeal to emotion headlines to say these people aren't getting charged with crimes, but that's only half the story. They're likely lawyering up and pleading to a civil infraction that has approx the same penalties.
And this is true not just for this issue but for many subject areas of administrative law. Taxes, SEC, environmental, etc, etc, all operate mostly like this.
It's easy for a writer to pander to certain demographics and get people whipped into a frenzy by writing an easy article about prosecuting rates using public data. Actually contacting these agencies and figuring out what they actually did is hard and in the modern media economy doesn't offer much upside for the work.
Someone (i forget who) wrote that if someone invented a technology equally beneficial and equally harmful it wouldnt even be considered today but 100 years ago they wouldnt even question it. It was labor as usual.
Personally i would like to see a more granual permission to drive based on performance, need and demography.
It's been a lot longer than that. You may have forgotten to include the encroachments that you supported; you seem only to have started with the disaster under Biden.
For example, I never hear about how hard librarians* fought against "National Security Letters" after 9/11. How quaint it is now to imagine that people thought that there should be a fundamental right to be able to read freely and without disclosing what you read to anyone, especially governments?
Technology has only made this cheap to do at scale.
For people who may not be familiar, the government insisted on the right to go into libraries and get a list of the books you've read. Hell, it's basically just a "pen register**," and the culture not only gave up on resisting that this data be considered private, but forgot why anyone would have ever thought that way.
Now we're arguing about forced digital attestation, but we're barely arguing about digital ID anymore ("of course" we need that), or even remember that most people were against federal identification in the US. Federal identification failed at every point to gain any support; it was pushed hard and failed during the Clinton admin, finally passed with everything else of this nature after 9/11, and then it was resisted and ignored enough to force deadlines to be pushed farther and farther back - it's been 30 years of RealID at this point.
There's no evidence that the population ever supported federal ID. The idea was forced upon them, and they just waited a generation for people to forget that the government once didn't even know or care that many people existed. 30 years from now, it will probably be weird trivia that the census was done anonymously: "You mean you didn't have to sign it under penalty of perjury? What would be the point of the data if you didn't know who it belonged to?"
In 5 days, May 27, 2026, you'll have to pay a fee of $45 in order to get on a plane for not having Real ID.
It's so obvious that these claims of necessity are always just excuses for a power grab. British Labour, who spent decades supporting huge amounts of immigration and then calling everyone racist who thought it was too much, now like Trump uses the prevention of illegal immigration as a reason to impose digital ID on everyone. They're xenophobes when it comes to tracking everyone's movements, but xenophiles when they needed to lower wages. Vote Tory, then! Nope, they supported and oversaw every element of all of this. None of this stuff ever sees a ballot.
Your goals are petty and short-sighted. One nice thing about the current state of economics, technology, labor and inflation is that we'll have fewer people who can only imagine suffering to the extent of having a bicycle stolen, and would not give the worst people in the world an infinite amount of power in order to prevent this from happening to them again.
The 20% of the country that thinks that shoplifting is the real problem are a problem. They will always vote for the biggest liar.
I'm right now imagining a counterfactual world where there is no property crime or physical assault, and petty reactionaries are demanding surveillance in order to keep people from swearing.
You don't have control over whether petty reactionaries exist. Model them as non-sentient beings if it helps you analyze it dispassionately. They're going to react to public disorder by voting in pubic safety authoritarians like Bukele or Duterte with or without your permission. Thus everyone should care about shoplifting, the only disagreement is whether you care about the first or second order effects of it.
I really liked your comment because it made me look at things a bit differently, although I didn't get new factual information. That happens rarelier than before to me nowadays. Just accepting that a certain amount of NPCs exist and dispassionately including them in the calculations.
Also, all property crime is a drop in the bucket compared to white collar crime. The people who are super concerned about petty theft are often the ones stealing massive amounts of money from everyone else and creating the situations that lead to petty theft.
Wage theft (minimum wage violations, forced off the clock work, withheld pay, etc) dwarfs robbery, burglary, and auto theft alone in dollar value. And that's just one kind of white collar crime.
We also have market manipulators, embezzlers, cons selling "wellness" bullshit, companies like Flock and Palantir conspiring to break constitutional amendments, Polymarket grifters, what have you.
I'd be happy with unlimited bike theft if those fucks all ended up in prison, but realistically it would lower the bike theft.
They don't give you that option when you vote.
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