When we moved away, the new schools and such didn't have that color. Either the grey fad was just taking root at that time, or it hadn't penetrated the tri cities (home to the Hanford project) quite as well as it did Los Alamos
Part of the problem is the word "replacement" kills nuanced thought and starts to create a strawman. No one will be replaced for a long time, but what happens will depend on the shape of the supply and demand curves of labor markets.
If 8 or 9 developers can do the work of 10, do companies choose to build 10% more stuff? Do they make their existing stuff 10% better? Or are they content to continue building the same amount with 10% fewer people?
In years past, I think they would have chosen to build more, but today I think that question has a more complex answer.
1. The default outcome: fewer people, same output (at first)
When productivity jumps (e.g., 5–6 devs can now do what 10 used to), most companies do not immediately ship 10% more or make things 10% better.
Instead, they usually:
Freeze or slow hiring
Backfill less when people leave
Quietly reduce team size over time
This happens because:
Output targets were already “good enough”
Budgets are set annually, not dynamically
Management rewards predictability more than ambition
So the first-order effect is cost savings, not reinvestment.
Productivity gains are initially absorbed as efficiency, not expansion.
2. The second-order effect: same headcount, more scope (but hidden)
In teams that don’t shrink, the extra capacity usually goes into things that were previously underfunded:
So yes, the product often becomes “better,” but in invisible ways.
3. Rare but real: more stuff, faster iteration
Some companies do choose to build more—but only when growth pressure is high.
This is common when:
The company is early-stage or mid-scale
Market share matters more than margin
Leadership is product- or founder-led
There’s a clear backlog of revenue-linked features
In these cases, productivity gains translate into:
Faster shipping cadence
More experiments
Shorter time-to-market
But this requires strong alignment. Without it, extra capacity just diffuses.
4. Why “10% more” almost never happens cleanly
The premise sounds linear, but software work isn’t.
Reasons:
Coordination, reviews, and decision-making still bottleneck
Roadmaps are constrained by product strategy, not dev hours
Sales, design, legal, and operations don’t scale at the same rate
So instead of:
“We build 10% more”
You get:
“We missed fewer deadlines”
“That migration finally happened”
“The system breaks less often”
These matter—but they’re not headline-grabbing.
5. The long-run macro pattern
Over time, across the industry:
Individual teams → shrink or hold steady
Companies → maintain output with fewer engineers
Industry as a whole → builds far more software than before
This is the classic productivity paradox:
Local gains → cost control
Global gains → explosion of software everywhere
Think:
More apps, not bigger teams
More features, not more people
More companies, not fatter ones
6. The uncomfortable truth
If productivity improves and:
Demand is flat
Competition isn’t forcing differentiation
Leadership incentives favor cost control
Then yes—companies are content to build the same amount with fewer people.
Not because they’re lazy, but because:
Efficiency is easier to measure than ambition
Savings are safer than bets
Headcount reductions show up cleanly on financials
ha ha, this is the response from Microsoft Copolit when I asked:
If 5 or 6 software developers can do the work of 10, do companies choose to build 10% more stuff? Do they make their existing stuff 10% better? Or are they content to continue building the same amount with 10% fewer people?
You don't need to draw the line between tech experts and the tech-naive. Plenty of people have the capability but not the time or discipline to execute such a thing by hand.
Generally most distribution costs are socialized starting with the REA and such. My block needed a new transformer a few weeks ago and it will be paid for by every customer of that utility.
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