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If the odds are set correctly, you should have the same EV on either side of a bet.

That's why it's hard to beat Vegas at sports betting--they set the correct odds way too often.

When regular folks make up their own odds, they're not very good at it, but in theory the market just buys up any +EV position, even if it's a longshot.


They've got some robots that do it already, targeting weeds with lasers.

Yeah but they’re never going to be as versatile as a humanoid that can identify one, move the crop gently aside and rip it out of the ground. I’m sure the lasers fail pretty quickly after the plants are a few inches tall due to lack of visibility.

Think this through.

Assisted suicide? Handjobs?

Is Walmart bound by anything an employee says? Should it be?


The law already covers this kind of thing using the reasonable person standard.

Walmart is bound by anything an employee says that a reasonable person would believe that employee has the authority to offer.

So if an employee tells you that you can have half off the service if it isn’t done today, probably bound by it. If they tell you the owner will give you a handjob probably not.


Indian scammers don't

I don't ever have the AI misunderstand what I mean.

I do get bullshit answers sometimes, but it always understands my intent.


Also, I'm curious: why do x posts get displayed as Twitter?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43339390

Probably at some point we'll relent.


You don't, but if they recommend second best options with any frequency, you'll find out eventually.

At some point he should run out of problems.

Jaguar-of-Theseus


Very soon, it will be difficult to tell the difference unless you probe it.

I think most folks already wouldn't be able to tell, with the modern TTS.

It's like AI photos, they fool you unless you're looking for it.


Yeah, it’s getting harder to tell. At some point the difference won’t be in the voice itself, but in how the conversation flows.

Even now, i think they're quick enough--but they interrupt at the wrong times, where humans know if they have enough context yet.

So, I agree. But I believe the problem is pretty solvable with enough tokens.


Phone is a better UX for many people, like my aging parents.

Phone is also faster.

Spoken word is still the most information dense way for humans to communicate abstract ideas in real time.


Uhhhh

Reading > Listening

Speaking > Typing

If you want raw performance on both sides, It is better to dictate an email that gets read later.


Monday

Hi Mr Garage man

Can you give me a quote for an timing belt on my car. It's a 2020 Foo bar.

Monday night

Hi customer

Is it a diesel of petrol

Monday night

Hi garage

It is a petrol

Tuesday lunch

Hi customer

Which engine size? The 1.2 has a chain, but the 1.6 is a wet belt

Tuesday night

Hi garage

How do I tell?

Wednesday lunch

Hi customer

Can you give me your registration number I'll look it up

Wednesday night

Hi garage

Abc 123

Thursday lunch

Hi customer

That is the 2.0, you need to cha nge the water pump at the same time depending on when it was last done. How many miles has it done

Thursday night

Hi garage

100,000

Friday morning

Hi customer

OK it is $2,000 including the oil and coolant change, water pump and seals.

Friday lunch

Hi garage

I don't want the coolant change or oil I just want the belt doing.

Monday morning

Hi customer

I'm afraid you have to drop the oil and coolant to do the job, so its not optional

Monday night

Oh, I understand. When can you fit me in

Tuesday morning

Friday next

Tuesday night

I'm away that week

Etc...

I think a phone call is much faster and an AI is a liability


You make a great and valid point. But I did say "real time".

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