On the Polymarket homepage right now, one of the featured markets is whether or not Bitcoin will be up or down over the next 5 minutes. It's hard to justify that as anything more than illegal gambling.
I find prediction markets to be interesting on two fronts:
1) They like a really good way to determine the probability of something happening, which is interesting for events like elections
2) It provides an avenue for smart bettors to take advantage and sharpen their skill, whereas they get severely limited or banned from traditional sports books
However, it seems like all incentive structures for the markets and consumer behavior will steer these things to degenerate gambling.
Polymarket is not CFTC regulated, it's considered illegal in the US. CFTC does not allow betting on securities prices. Cryptocurrency is a bit of a gray area because it's not considered a registered security.
N.B. it becomes a bit frustrating to talk about financial and regulatory things on this site because the level of knowledge is generally "I read some articles on social media about markets" level.
> Cryptocurrency is a bit of a gray area because it's not considered a registered security
Additionally, the SEC and CFTC guidance on what digital asset can be treated as a security and what can be treated as a commodity was only released a couple weeks ago [0].
Stuff is changing rapidly so it's best to keep an experienced regulatory lawyer on retainer.
> N.B. it becomes a bit frustrating to talk about financial and regulatory things on this site because the level of knowledge is generally "I read some articles on social media about markets" level.
Concrete counter top mixes usually use either much smaller, or no aggregate and use more sand. The mixes resemble mortar more than concrete and they are typically a little harder and less forgiving to work with.
Granted, my modeling skills begin and end with Tinkercad but I've actually created some really useful things for around the house and for hobbies -- a plug for my septic drain field distribution box pipes (one pipe was cut too short and there was no good way to plug it -- I tried lots of options before making one myself), jigs for drilling, pieces for a claw machine I'm refurbishing, cases for Arduino projects, etc.
The balancing act of figuring out what you can reasonably rely on from an LLM and what you need to be skeptical or dismissive of is not the type of experience an iPhone user should be expected to navigate.
>> Variant B improved conversion rate (CVR) or Add-to-Cart (ATC) rate? Roll it out.
Basing rollouts on add-to-cart rate is generally not a great idea, particularly for experiments on product pages. There are a variety of reasons why shoppers add products to carts that may only be loosely based on intent to purchase. In my years of ecommerce A/B testing, I've seen plenty of tests that improve conversion rate and/or revenue per visitor but negatively impact add-to-cart rates.
I get the sentiment but was this actually some big launch announcement? When I look at the store online, you have to dig a bit just to even find the product.
Where I live, bald-faced hornets and yellowjackets are very aggressive. Yellowjackets will also build nests inside of structures, in the ground, etc. where it's sometimes very difficult to even know they are there until it's too late.
This is much different than honey bees and other types of wasps who are much less likely to attack just by being near them.
I've used the Tacbo Bel AI drive-thru and came away with the same thought. I kind of groaned at first but it was very accurate, even when making adjustments.
> But actually, Amazon, Apple etc aren't natural homes for this, they don't need to burn money to chase it.
Why wouldn't consumer AI be a natural home for Apple?
Apple is constantly under blast for being slow to AI but if you look at the current state of AI, it feels like something Apple would never release -- the quality just isn't there. I don't necessarily think Apple only dipping their toes into AI is that poor of a decision right now. They still have the ability to blow the roof off the market with agents and device integration whenever the tech is far enough along to be trustworthy to the average consumer.
Apple's natural home is hardware, and the consume software integrated with that hardware. Off the top of my head I can't think of any "hard" software created by Apple, it's all about the UX and the integrations.
So unless Apple thinks it can outcompete it's BigTech competitors in something it historically hasn't done much of, best leave it to them.
> Off the top of my head I can't think of any "hard" software created by Apple, it's all about the UX and the integrations.
This sounds like you’re either unfamiliar with what software they make or underestimate the complexity of things like a modern operating system. For example, most people would consider Swift hard, or the various Core frameworks, or things like designing a new modern file system and doing in place migrations on billion devices, etc.
Every tool I've tinkered with that hints at one-shotting (or one-shot and then refine) ends up with a messy app that might be 60-70% of what you're looking for but since the foundation is not solid, you're never going to get the extra 30-40% of your initial prompt, let the multiples of work needed to bolt of future functionality.
Compare that to the approach you're using (which is what I'm also doing), and you're able have have AI stay much closer to what you're looking for, be less prone to damaging hallucinations, and also guide it to a foundation that's stable. The downside is that it's a lot more work. You might multiply your productivity by some single digit.
To me, that 2nd approach is much more reasonable than trying to 100x your productivity but actually end up getting less done because you end up stuck in a rabbit hole you don't know you're in and you'll never refine your way out of it.
I got stuck in that rabbit hole you mention. Ended up ditching AI and just picked up a no/low-code web app builder cause I don’t handle large project contexts in my own head well enough to chunk design into tasks that AI can handle. But the builder I use can separate the backend from the front end which allows for a custom front end template source code to be consumed by an ai agent if you want. I’m hoping I can manage this context better but I still have to design and deploy a module to consume user submitted photos and process with an ai model for instant quote generation
I find prediction markets to be interesting on two fronts:
1) They like a really good way to determine the probability of something happening, which is interesting for events like elections
2) It provides an avenue for smart bettors to take advantage and sharpen their skill, whereas they get severely limited or banned from traditional sports books
However, it seems like all incentive structures for the markets and consumer behavior will steer these things to degenerate gambling.
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