Leaving aside the reductionism, the difference is that we are already seeing the effects of the "bad weather" and we all lived through [1] (and, to a point, are still feeling the effects of) the "flu". No "ifs" about it.
There's no need to worry about a threat that has been theorized for 70 years (and may very well never happen) when there are actual, real catastrophes happening right now.
[1] Well, except for those who didn't make it through. They are not here by definition, but their memory is still fresh.
I’m not sure there will be consolidation. There’s too much room for specialization and even when the models are trained to do the same task they have very different qualities and their own strengths and weaknesses. You can’t just swap one for the other. If anything, as hardware improves I’d expect even more models and providers to become available. There’s already an ocean of fine tuned and merged models.
Somethings not adding up. Why is Amazon making financial plans for the next decade based on continued OpenAI spending but you’re saying AI providers like OpenAI and Anthropic aren’t even close to being profitable, so how can they last a decade or more?
That's the interesting question, right? Because if this unwinds during a period of external inflation (say, because of a big war and energy shortage) then even the Bernanke would say helicopter money won't work
So in reality you’re paying for their food, electricity and heat, letting them rent a room for free, and allowing them the use of the other facilities in your home and on top of that you’re giving them a spending allowance of 300 euro.
The marginal cost of food/electricity/bed for adding one additional person to a family is drastically less than those things would cost for a person living alone. Whichever way you slice this, the employer is making out like a bandit under this scheme.
There is a possibility that the agents become better at managing the company than the people and businesses become as automated as farms did during the industrial revolution.
Yeah and you’re doing a lot of heavy lifting with the term agents.
Billions have been poured into agents and there’s no sign that they will get to a place where they on the path toward generating returns to justify more good money being invested into chasing bad.
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