I've written them right after the startup launches. My track record:
1.) Reddit. The day after it launched: "Well, this is interesting, but I can't ever see myself using it." 3 months later, after I started using it: "Well, I use it, but I can't ever see it getting popular." Early 2006, in response to PG's comment about "This sucker's profitable": "But are they profitable enough to cover the opportunity cost's of the founder's salaries?" Mid 2006: "Okay, they're profitable through bizdev deals, but I can't imagine them ever getting bought." I believe they were acquired on Halloween 2006.
2.) Infogami: I thought they were the most likely of the SFP05 startups to be successful, right until they launched.
3.) Wufoo, when it came out: "I don't get what the point is." About 9 months later: "Incidentally, I'd put Wufoo, VirtualMin, and DropBox at the bottom of the deadpool, i.e. most likely to succeed."
5.) VirtualMin: Already mentioned that this is one I'd invest in if I actually had money. I'd used Webmin for previous websites; there's a lot of money in easy-to-use server admin tools for folks who don't really know what they're doing.
6.) RescueTime: Loved it from the moment I heard about it. Immediately recommended it to friends; if I had money, I'd invest.
7.) Thinkature: I thought this was really cool when it came out, and that it'd be one of the survivors of its batch.
8.) Flagr: Thought this was succeeding for sure when one of my RL friends linked me to a Flagr map.
9.) Justin.TV. "This is pointless, I can't believe YC gave these guys $50K, I'll probably never visit it again."
neither of you guys mentioned loopt, but it is supposed to be one of the startups that PG has the most expectation. do you guys think it won't succeed, or what is it?
1.) Reddit. The day after it launched: "Well, this is interesting, but I can't ever see myself using it." 3 months later, after I started using it: "Well, I use it, but I can't ever see it getting popular." Early 2006, in response to PG's comment about "This sucker's profitable": "But are they profitable enough to cover the opportunity cost's of the founder's salaries?" Mid 2006: "Okay, they're profitable through bizdev deals, but I can't imagine them ever getting bought." I believe they were acquired on Halloween 2006.
2.) Infogami: I thought they were the most likely of the SFP05 startups to be successful, right until they launched.
3.) Wufoo, when it came out: "I don't get what the point is." About 9 months later: "Incidentally, I'd put Wufoo, VirtualMin, and DropBox at the bottom of the deadpool, i.e. most likely to succeed."
4.) Xobni: "Personally, I'd put Xobni at the top of the YC deadpool." http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=51982
5.) VirtualMin: Already mentioned that this is one I'd invest in if I actually had money. I'd used Webmin for previous websites; there's a lot of money in easy-to-use server admin tools for folks who don't really know what they're doing.
6.) RescueTime: Loved it from the moment I heard about it. Immediately recommended it to friends; if I had money, I'd invest.
7.) Thinkature: I thought this was really cool when it came out, and that it'd be one of the survivors of its batch.
8.) Flagr: Thought this was succeeding for sure when one of my RL friends linked me to a Flagr map.
9.) Justin.TV. "This is pointless, I can't believe YC gave these guys $50K, I'll probably never visit it again."
Somebody remind me never to become a VC.