> Otoh, what russia desperately needs in the short term is oil prices to go up, so there is probably a major silver lining for them.

And they will again appear weak and incapable, unable to help their allies

> And they will again appear weak and incapable, unable to help their allies

Iran and Russia have various partnership agreements, but are not allies. And Russia has already demonstrated that it doesn't support what are, on paper, close allies in the CSTO, so not defending a non-ally strategic partner really doesn't move the needle on their credibility.

Isn’t this a fact set in stone by now? Armenia, Syria, Iran in the previous months

Iran’s oil is sanctioned hence not on public market. Does it really have much influence?

China buys Iranian oil, if they’ll start to but oil from non-sanctioned countries it will push prices up. But the biggest reason for prices to go up is the risk that Iran will attack tankers in the strait of Hormuz or oil infrastructure on Arabian peninsula.

Except that Iran's oil also going to end up in non-sanctioned market, pushing prices down.

It does, but the primary concern is iran stopping oil transit by other countries in the strait of hormuz, not their own oil.

Which they did just start to do.

Yes, because if it stops flowing, demand on the public market will increase, and prices will rise.