Of course I don’t, it’s just the likeliest outcome. Betting markets are a terrible way to try to predict anything. People are irrational and sometimes irrational people are in power.
If the US doesn’t literally go and take away that enriched uranium it will be used to build a bomb. Nuclear weapons are the only fool-proof insurance against regime change operations.
You are putting your argument in a smaller and smaller box so it doesn’t fall apart.
Btw on Polymarket the chances of US forces entering Iran this year are 60%. The odds of the regime falling this year are 50/50.
So I repeat: you have no idea what the next government will be like. No one does. Everything is uncertain right now.