In a one-shot scenario, I agree. But LLMs make iteration much faster. So the comparison is not really between an AI and an experienced dev coding by hand, it's between the dev iterating with an LLM and the dev iterating by hand. And the former can produce high-quality code much faster than the latter.
The question is, what happens when you have a middling dev iterating with an LLM? And in that case, the drop in quality is probably non-linear---it can get pretty bad, pretty fast.
The question is, what happens when you have a middling dev iterating with an LLM? And in that case, the drop in quality is probably non-linear---it can get pretty bad, pretty fast.