I'm led to understand the majority of money tends to come at the start and end of fundraising efforts for these things. Though I can't recall where I heard it. Chris Taylor talking about the funraising effort for GPG I think -
Would it not be greatly dependant on how far the project gets in that initial funding. The projects that overshoot in the final days are generally ones that are 60-80% funded.
Yes - things that are U shaped would depend heavily on how great the initial and final funding is. In terms of $/t, rather than donations/t, it'd look more like - well assuming you got all your money on the first and last day you'd have two sheer cliffs with a perfectly flat plateau between them. But in reality it's likely to be somewhat smoother than that and the plateau is unlikely to the perfectly flat.
Assuming that the linear model holds until the last few days and then you get an upturn equal to the initial contributions, then you'd be looking at something like $22-23 million. Well, I'm just measuring it on my screen with my hands to get that, but that'd be my prediction based on what little I know of these sorts of fundraising thingies, assuming it behaves in the same manner as they did. ^^;
http://youtu.be/5zJdMRKBbLE
- Ah, there we go, at around 3 minutes in. U shaped distribution for Proj Eternity -
[Very good interview, by the way, if you haven't seen it and don't already know a bit about game companies. Really feel sorry for the guy.]
Anyhoo. Not that I'm saying this is a U shape, but I suspect you're going to need comparison to similar products to say too much of meaning.