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Very nice, much faster than simulating it. I guess if you're using an informative prior, instead of adding 1 to the number of successes and failures, you add the corresponding parameters of your beta prior?

A pretty good shortcut (if you don't have a log-beta function, for example) is to approximate both A and B with the normal distribution. Then their difference is also normal, so you can just check the probability that a normal random variable is greater than zero.

Specifically, the mean μ of a beta distribution is α/(α+β) and the variance σ^2 is αβ/((α+β)^2(α+β+1)). Use these as the parameters for your normal approximation, and we have the difference D ~ N(μ_A-μ_B, σ_A^2+σ_B^2). The probability that B beats A is just the CDF of D evaluated at 0.

In Python:

  from scipy.stats import norm as norm

  def beta_mean(a, b):
      return a/(a+b)
  def beta_var(a, b):
      return a*b/((a+b)**2*(a+b+1))
  def probability_B_beats_A(α_A, β_A, α_B, β_B):
      mu = beta_mean(α_A, β_A) - beta_mean(α_B, β_B)
      sigma = (beta_var(α_A, β_A) + beta_var(α_B, β_B))**.5
      return norm.cdf(0, mu, sigma)


For those of us stuck in Java/Scala land, with attached results: https://gist.github.com/krishnanraman/4be978cbe8979e4c97fa


Great job. Tks




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